Saturday, July 14, 2007

Twelve Steps to Re-Make Iraq

Iraq has been likened to a shattered glass, and that is an apt metaphor. What once was can never be reassembled. In the last five years, US policy – guided by arrogance, ignorance and incompetence -- has turned a nation-state into so much wreckage. But that is history, and history cannot be altered. What about now?
There should be no doubt that the present course must be abandoned, yet few coherent alternatives have been advanced to replace it. What is needed is an entirely fresh approach. With that in mind, here are twelve steps that if adopted have a reasonable chance for success in re-making Iraq:

1. Suspend Iraqi sovereignty. It is not a functioning state and we must stop pretending that it is. Our initial rush to restore Iraqi sovereignty after Saddam, before the country was capable of self-rule, was but a political flourish by the Bush Administration. Much of the world views it as a fiction anyway as long as it remains under US occupation.
2. Suspend the Iraqi constitution, dismiss the ineffective al-Maliki government and declare martial law. The Iraqi “democracy” bequeathed so ineptly by the US is as much of a fiction as the country’s alleged sovereignty. It is a flawed system assembled from flawed assumptions and it simply cannot and does not govern.
3. Select a secular strong man and put him in power as a “king” with authoritarian powers for five years with the goal of evolving a constitutional monarchy in the years that follow. He must be a civilian and he must control the armed forces.
4. Abolish the death penalty. There must be a guarantee against judicial murder.
5. Declare a general amnesty. All political prisoners should be released without prejudice.
6. Exile leaders of violent factions currently in captivity to third countries. The period of exile should be ten years, with an appeal considered in five.
7. Declare that US troops will leave the country permanently in one year; in the meantime those troops should be utilized to support the king and his new government.
8. Set a date for a cease-fire by all parties and a surrender of arms. Declare that the new government will consider itself at war with any party that does not abide by this armistice.
9. Partition the country into three federal super-states where citizens can feel safe. The Kurdish north has been a de-facto state since the end of the Persian Gulf War. Two more must be created taking into account the on-the-ground realties of Shiite and Sunni domination. Baghdad, the seat of government, should be a neutral entity that is not incorporated into any of the three federal states. Partition in this sense will be utilized to unite the country, rather than divide it.
10. Draw up a new interim Iraqi constitution, under the aegis of the justices of United States Supreme Court and the International Court of Justice. The new constitution should declare absolute supremacy of secular rule – as in Turkey – and enshrine human rights such as religious tolerance, civilian rule, a death penalty prohibition, freedom of speech, press and association, and political neutrality in regional and international conflicts. A constitutional monarchy should be constructed to permanently govern the nation after the initial five years of direct rule by the king.
11. Invite UN peacekeepers and troops from third countries to seal the borders of Iraq with all of its neighbors to guarantee the security and eventual sovereignty of the new Iraqi nation.
12. Convene a regional council of neighboring countries including Syria, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan, under the auspices of the Secretary General of the United Nations. Russia should be brought into the process to ensure its interests in the region are not threatened and to help enforce the settlement. The council should work towards establishing a treaty that guarantees the security of all, including the new Iraqi state.

These steps can only hope to succeed if adopted as a uniform blueprint: each part of this program is dependant upon all of the others. Of course, there are no guarantees, but it can offer hope for a new beginning for Iraq and a respectable way out for the United States. The current course, on the other hand, is an unmitigated disaster that portends only more of the same ruin for the Iraqis and the American people. It’s time to try a new way forward.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very interesting Stan. This plan sounds good and solid, but you are forgetting a couple of things...

1. There is only one "decision maker" in this messy situation, and
2. he is intent on spreading "democracy" to the region.
3. Anything short of that would be seen as "a failure"
4. That would make us look "weak" and empower our "enemies".
5. We don't want that because they will "follow us home".

In all seriousness, that's a great post. Well thought out as usual.

4:10 PM  

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